
As Bitcoin (BTC) approaches its largest monthly options expiry of 2025, with a total exposure of $13.8 billion, the cryptocurrency market is buzzing with excitement and anticipation. The bulls are aiming to push BTC above $110,000 by May 30 to capitalize on $4.8 billion in call options, while bears are scrambling to adjust their positions after being caught off guard by a 25% rally over the past 30 days.
The current open interest in Bitcoin put options stands at $6.5 billion, with the majority of these positions set below $109,000. This means that if Bitcoin's price remains steady, only a fraction of these put options will remain relevant at expiry. On the other hand, the open interest in Bitcoin call options up to $109,000 totals $3.8 billion, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market.
One of the significant option strategies being traded at Deribit in recent weeks is the "short call" strategy, which allows investors to earn a fixed income as long as Bitcoin's price remains above a specific threshold. Additionally, the "bull call spread" strategy is being used to hedge against downside risk by sacrificing potential gains above a certain price level.
The strong inflows of $1.9 billion into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) between May 20 and May 22 suggest that demand for Bitcoin remains robust above $105,000. However, bears may try to influence BTC futures markets as the expiry date approaches to limit their losses.
Various scenarios have been outlined based on current price trends, estimating theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances. The most favorable outcome for bulls would be driving BTC above $110,000, which could potentially set a new all-time high for the cryptocurrency. However, the momentum of this bullish trend is contingent on external factors such as the ongoing tariff war, which has been a key focus in recent weeks.
In conclusion, the upcoming options expiry presents a significant opportunity for both bulls and bears to make strategic moves in the Bitcoin market. The potential for Bitcoin to break through the $110,000 mark and establish a new high will largely depend on how market dynamics unfold in the coming days leading up to the expiry date. Investors and traders are advised to closely monitor developments in the cryptocurrency space and stay informed about the latest trends and news.
Leave a Reply