As of May 2025, about 93.3% of the total supply of Bitcoin (BTC) has been mined, leaving approximately 1.4 million BTC yet to be created. The fixed upper limit of 21 million BTC is a fundamental aspect of Bitcoin's design, ensuring its scarcity and value proposition as a deflationary asset.
Bitcoin's issuance schedule is governed by a mechanism known as the halving, where the block reward is reduced by half approximately every four years. This exponential reduction in new supply means that it will take over a century to mine the remaining 6.7% of Bitcoin. Current estimates suggest that 99% of all Bitcoin will have been mined by 2035, with the final fraction not expected to be produced until around the year 2140 due to the geometric reward reduction.
This engineered scarcity, combined with an immutable supply cap, draws comparisons between Bitcoin and physical commodities like gold. However, Bitcoin's issuance rate is transparently declining, unlike the annual growth in gold supply.
Despite the fixed supply cap, the actual circulating supply of Bitcoin may be lower than the total 21 million due to lost coins. Estimates suggest that between 3.0 million and 3.8 million BTC, roughly 14%-18% of the total supply, may be permanently lost. This loss of coins further contributes to Bitcoin's scarcity over time.
Compared to gold, where most of the mined supply remains in circulation or storage, lost Bitcoin cannot be recovered, leading to a continuous reduction in available supply. This hardening scarcity of Bitcoin may lead to increased price volatility, concentration of value in active holders, and a premium on liquid BTC.
Concerns about Bitcoin's security as block rewards decrease are often unfounded, as the mining ecosystem is designed to adapt to changing incentives. The self-correcting feedback loop of Bitcoin's mining economy ensures that miners adjust to profitability levels, maintaining network security.
As Bitcoin mining becomes more energy-efficient and migrates towards renewable energy sources, the narrative of endless energy consumption driven by rising Bitcoin prices is being challenged. With a significant portion of mining operations now relying on renewables and low-emission sources, regulations and market dynamics are shaping a more sustainable future for Bitcoin mining.
In conclusion, the scarcity of Bitcoin, driven by its fixed supply cap and lost coins, coupled with its adaptive mining ecosystem and increasing use of renewable energy, positions the leading cryptocurrency for a future where its value proposition and security remain robust.
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